Storm clouds have gathered over the land of middle grade literature, and the forecast is uncertain. Referring to 2023 sales, consumer behavior advisor Circana reports that “Sales of books for children ages 8-11 are posting the steepest year over year declines within the children’s book market in the U.S.”
But haven’t print sales decreased overall? Yes, print sales were down 3% in 2023. However, sales of middle grade books declined by 10%. And that came on the heels of 2022, which saw its own steep decline in the middle grade market. The middle grade market is in a slump.
There’s a lot of speculation about the cause of this downward trend. There are supply chain issues, the cost of paper, and increasing book prices to take into account. But there isn’t one factor alone that has produced the current state of affairs. It’s a combination of factors that have joined forces to create the perfect storm.
Pandemic Effects
Event cancellations and supply chain issues caused a major disruption during the pandemic, and these issues have not completely resolved themselves. Increasing book costs and unstable profit margins are a direct result of this continuing recovery.
Another pandemic effect could be the widespread learning loss attributed to school closures. According to Education Week, “Analyses of student test scores have repeatedly shown severe declines in academic achievement.” These gaps in learning form a compounding deficit, especially in reading.
However, in a recent issue of Publishers Weekly, Circana BookScan books analyst Karen McLean notes that the decline in children’s book sales “is really a return to 2019 levels, before the pandemic led to a jump in children’s sales.” It may be reasonable to suggest that a surge in sales during the early part of the pandemic has skewed trends and statistics in the years since 2020.
Book Challenges
Book challenges and book bans have certainly affected the middle grade market. School Library Journal reports that school librarians were “more likely to avoid buying books or to remove titles from collections because of their content” in 2023. This certainly affects sales, but in a larger and more concerning context, it affects readership.
Trying to avoid conflict, some school libraries have severely limited students’ access to circulation, placing restrictions on students’ ability to check books out. Many teachers have eliminated classroom libraries altogether, and still others have opted out of reading aloud to students.
Book challenges have created a threatening environment. For many school personnel, it’s just not worth the hassle to provide books for students. Sadly, the trend resulting from book challenges is contributing to a declining interest in reading among students.
In Publishers Weekly’s Spring 2024 Children’s Preview, Molly Ker Hawn of the Bent Agency says, “The drop in school and library sales, thanks to book challenges and restrictive local and state-level legislation, makes me really concerned about the whole middle grade ecosystem.”
The Changing Landscape of Literature
School Library Journal’s Teen Librarian Toolbox (TLT) suggests that trends in middle grade books may be causing some readers to pause. One trend they note is that middle grade novels are aging up, with the typical middle grade protagonist now being 12 or 13.
Additionally, TLT points out that middle grade novels “are growing increasingly longer, which can be a real hindrance to many readers. We don’t need all the books to be shorter, but we need more shorter books to be an option.”
The popularity of graphic novels among this age group should be an indication that many students are averse to hundreds of pages of solid text. Perhaps the formula for the next break-out middle grade hit will find its success in an innovative format.
What’s Working
We’ve heard the grim news. Let’s talk about what’s working in middle grade. Graphic novels continue to top the sales charts, especially when they are products of series. While this format initially struggled to achieve legitimacy among many adult gatekeepers, it has proven itself to be an effective port of entry for budding book enthusiasts.
We see consistency in the popularity of books by authors like Dav Pilkey, Jeff Kinney, and Raina Telgemeier, but there’s another trend in graphic novels that deserves some attention. According to Publishers Weekly, adaptations are driving the market. Many backlist books are seeing a resurgence in popularity because they have been adapted into graphic novels.
Ann M. Martin’s Baby-Sitters Club chapter books have been adapted into graphic novels, and guess what? The original chapter books have seen a new surge in popularity. The same is true of Mary Pope Osborne’s Magic Tree House books.
Following suit, you can now find graphic adaptations of Chris Grabenstein’s Escape From Mr. Lemoncello’s Library and Paula Danziger’s Amber Brown series. Based on the track record of adaptations, we may see a resurgence in the popularity of these backlist titles.
Looking Ahead
Will the storm clouds continue to gather over the land of middle grade? Or will the sun break through and usher in the dawn of a brand new day? Time will tell. Given this uncertain forecast, what should middle grade authors do?
Authors, of course, should keep writing. Stories are derived from passion and creativity. They are crafted through revision and feedback. And they are always born with an uncertain future.
Every creative act is a risk taken by the creator. Whether that creation finds success in the market or not, it is a personal triumph for the author who has turned a solitary, irresistible idea into a gift to share with the world. The great hope to which we can all cling is that middle grade readers will soon rediscover the joy of books.
